UAE-India airfares surge as back-to-school rush hits travel costs

Back-to-school rush drives up UAE-India airfares

With schools in the UAE set to reopen later this month, families returning from summer holidays are facing some of the highest airfares of the season on routes from India. This has prompted many travelers to rethink how they book their journeys home. Instead of flying on the most popular dates, many are returning earlier or later, choosing connecting flights, flying into different Gulf airports or even buying one-way tickets in the hope that fares would fall closer to departure. Travel agents say demand remains concentrated on essential travel, while geopolitical uncertainty, rising fuel prices and reduced airline capacity continue to keep fares elevated.

Travelers adjust strategies to cut costs

One-way tickets have become a common trend as travelers seek to minimize expenses. Afi Ahmed, Chairman of Smart Travels, noted that many families are purchasing one-way tickets instead of traditional return fares, expecting fares to drop at the last moment and the geopolitical situation to improve. “Normally, people take return tickets. This time, one-way tickets were commonplace,” he said. However, the situation is not as simple as it seems. For example, one-way Economy fares in the last weeks of August, which is when UAE schools reopen after the summer, are in the Dh1,200 (from Mumbai) to Dh3,705 (Kochi) ranges. In comparison, off-peak fares are sometimes available for anything between Dh350 to Dh650.

Leisure travel declines amid rising costs and uncertainty

For many travel agencies, leisure bookings have slowed sharply as families prioritize essential trips. Ipshita Sharma of SCN Travel & More said enquiries for holidays have reduced considerably. “Bare essential travel is happening. I have no enquiries for fun travel. Everybody is just going home and coming back. Leisure travel is almost nil,” she said. She added that travelers are being hit by a combination of high fares and uncertainty. “Just as things were settling down, the fresh noises have started. And the rumour mills are churning, which doesn’t help.” In some cases, flights now cost more than the holiday itself. “The entire land package with five-star stay and private transfers is less expensive than four flight tickets,” Sharma noted.

Experts highlight rising fuel costs and dynamic pricing

Travel experts say the back-to-school rush is coinciding with higher airline costs globally. Jet fuel prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with the International Air Transport Association’s Jet Fuel Monitor showing the global average jet fuel price climbed to $158.77 per barrel for the week ending July 31. While it fell 0.8 per cent compared to the previous week, it has risen 76.4 per cent compared to last year. Several airlines worldwide have also warned of mounting fuel costs, while aviation analysts say carriers continue to face higher labour, maintenance and operating expenses. Adding to the pressure, airlines are increasingly using artificial intelligence to adjust ticket prices in real time based on demand, booking patterns, seat availability and competitor fares. According to a recent Bloomberg report, the technology is helping airlines capture more revenue on busy routes while reducing the number of discounted seats available, although quieter flights could still see lower fares as carriers seek to fill empty seats.

• One-way tickets are becoming a common strategy for travelers seeking to cut costs.
• Leisure travel has declined significantly as families prioritize essential trips.
• Rising fuel prices and dynamic pricing models are contributing to higher fares.